Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Friday 10 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 16636 (+1968) 466969 (+39868) 25316 (+3002) 425017 (+34898)
France 12210 (+1341) 117749 (+4799) 23206 (+1952) 82333 (+1506)
United Kingdom 7978 (+881) 65077 (+4344) 135 (+0) 56964 (+3463)
Spain 15447 (+655) 153222 (+5002) 52165 (+4144) 85610 (+203)
Italy 18279 (+610) 143626 (+4204) 28470 (+1979) 96877 (+1615)
Belgium 2523 (+283) 24983 (+1580) 5164 (+483) 17296 (+814)
Germany 2607 (+258) 118235 (+4939) 52407 (+6107) 63221 (-1426)
Netherlands 2396 (+148) 21762 (+1213) 250 (+0) 19116 (+1065)
Brazil 954 (+134) 18145 (+1957) 173 (+46) 17018 (+1777)
Iran 4110 (+117) 66220 (+1634) 32309 (+2497) 29801 (-980)
Sweden 793 (+106) 9141 (+722) 205 (+0) 8143 (+616)
Turkey 908 (+96) 42282 (+4056) 2142 (+296) 39232 (+3664)
Canada 509 (+82) 20765 (+1327) 5311 (+763) 14945 (+482)
Switzerland 948 (+53) 24051 (+771) 10600 (+800) 12503 (-82)
India 226 (+48) 6725 (+809) 620 (+114) 5879 (+647)
Indonesia 280 (+40) 3293 (+337) 252 (+30) 2761 (+267)
Mexico 174 (+33) 3181 (+396) 633 (+0) 2374 (+363)
Algeria 235 (+30) 1666 (+94) 347 (+110) 1084 (-46)
Ecuador 272 (+30) 4965 (+515) 339 (+199) 4354 (+286)
Portugal 409 (+29) 13956 (+815) 205 (+9) 13342 (+777)
Ireland 263 (+28) 6574 (+500) 25 (+0) 6286 (+472)
Romania 248 (+28) 5202 (+441) 647 (+119) 4307 (+294)
Austria 295 (+22) 13244 (+302) 5240 (+728) 7709 (-448)
Philippines 203 (+21) 4076 (+206) 124 (+28) 3749 (+157)
Denmark 237 (+19) 5635 (+233) 1736 (+115) 3662 (+99)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 92295 (+7294) 1519437 (+91561) 278301 (+26032)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 96609 ( +5658) 1565274 ( +66097) 295665 ( +22079)
Sat 11 April 2020 101987 ( +5378) 1626345 ( +61071) 317310 ( +21645)
Sun 12 April 2020 107037 ( +5051) 1682248 ( +55903) 338240 ( +20930)
Mon 13 April 2020 111728 ( +4690) 1732983 ( +50735) 358212 ( +19972)
Tue 14 April 2020 116038 ( +4310) 1778672 ( +45689) 377028 ( +18817)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 3335 (+2) 81865 (+63) 77370 (+91)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 3270 ( +0) 81104 ( +0) 76131 ( +38)
Sat 11 April 2020 3270 ( +0) 81104 ( +0) 76164 ( +33)
Sun 12 April 2020 3270 ( +0) 81104 ( +0) 76193 ( +29)
Mon 13 April 2020 3270 ( +0) 81104 ( +0) 76217 ( +25)
Tue 14 April 2020 3270 ( +0) 81104 ( +0) 76239 ( +22)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 15447 (+655) 153222 (+5002) 52165 (+4144)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 15379 ( +348) 153136 ( +2932) 53010 ( +2363)
Sat 11 April 2020 15668 ( +289) 155612 ( +2476) 55030 ( +2020)
Sun 12 April 2020 15905 ( +237) 157690 ( +2078) 56730 ( +1700)
Mon 13 April 2020 16099 ( +194) 159426 ( +1736) 58142 ( +1412)
Tue 14 April 2020 16257 ( +158) 160869 ( +1443) 59303 ( +1161)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 18279 (+610) 143626 (+4204) 28470 (+1979)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 18210 ( +327) 141007 ( +1798) 28183 ( +1016)
Sat 11 April 2020 18495 ( +284) 142574 ( +1567) 29125 ( +942)
Sun 12 April 2020 18741 ( +246) 143935 ( +1361) 29993 ( +867)
Mon 13 April 2020 18952 ( +212) 145113 ( +1178) 30786 ( +793)
Tue 14 April 2020 19134 ( +182) 146131 ( +1018) 31507 ( +721)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 16636 (+1968) 466969 (+39868) 25316 (+3002)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 18017 ( +1642) 476461 ( +22353) 25901 ( +1213)
Sat 11 April 2020 19568 ( +1551) 496160 ( +19698) 26868 ( +966)
Sun 12 April 2020 20995 ( +1428) 513275 ( +17116) 27622 ( +755)
Mon 13 April 2020 22279 ( +1284) 527965 ( +14690) 28202 ( +580)
Tue 14 April 2020 23411 ( +1131) 540440 ( +12475) 28643 ( +440)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 12210 (+1341) 117749 (+4799) 23206 (+1952)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 12996 ( +896) 129661 ( +8009) 28385 ( +3263)
Sat 11 April 2020 13818 ( +822) 137393 ( +7732) 32071 ( +3687)
Sun 12 April 2020 14558 ( +740) 144773 ( +7380) 36237 ( +4165)
Mon 13 April 2020 15213 ( +655) 151741 ( +6968) 40943 ( +4706)
Tue 14 April 2020 15784 ( +571) 158253 ( +6511) 46261 ( +5318)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 4110 (+117) 66220 (+1634) 32309 (+2497)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 4016 ( +63) 69709 ( +2269) 34102 ( +2742)
Sat 11 April 2020 4072 ( +56) 71874 ( +2164) 37084 ( +2982)
Sun 12 April 2020 4121 ( +50) 73928 ( +2054) 40326 ( +3243)
Mon 13 April 2020 4165 ( +44) 75868 ( +1941) 43852 ( +3526)
Tue 14 April 2020 4203 ( +38) 77693 ( +1825) 47687 ( +3834)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 2607 (+258) 118235 (+4939) 52407 (+6107)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 2762 ( +214) 117530 ( +2485) 55067 ( +5326)
Sat 11 April 2020 2961 ( +200) 119663 ( +2133) 60385 ( +5318)
Sun 12 April 2020 3145 ( +183) 121483 ( +1820) 65594 ( +5209)
Mon 13 April 2020 3309 ( +165) 123026 ( +1544) 70603 ( +5009)
Tue 14 April 2020 3455 ( +146) 124330 ( +1304) 75335 ( +4731)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 7978 (+881) 65077 (+4344) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 8538 ( +688) 68441 ( +3808) 186 ( +9)
Sat 11 April 2020 9164 ( +626) 71925 ( +3484) 196 ( +10)
Sun 12 April 2020 9720 ( +555) 75067 ( +3141) 206 ( +10)
Mon 13 April 2020 10201 ( +481) 77862 ( +2796) 216 ( +11)
Tue 14 April 2020 10610 ( +409) 80321 ( +2459) 227 ( +11)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 793 (+106) 9141 (+722) 205 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 882 ( +102) 9468 ( +523) 209 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 989 ( +107) 9985 ( +517) 209 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 1098 ( +109) 10492 ( +507) 209 ( +0)
Mon 13 April 2020 1206 ( +109) 10987 ( +494) 209 ( +0)
Tue 14 April 2020 1313 ( +107) 11465 ( +478) 209 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 2396 (+148) 21762 (+1213) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 2441 ( +99) 21677 ( +574) 250 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 2527 ( +86) 22179 ( +502) 250 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 2600 ( +73) 22615 ( +436) 250 ( +0)
Mon 13 April 2020 2661 ( +62) 22992 ( +377) 250 ( +0)
Tue 14 April 2020 2713 ( +51) 23316 ( +324) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 174 (+15) 5575 (+370) 284 (+62)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 203 ( +26) 5885 ( +336) 303 ( +31)
Sat 11 April 2020 231 ( +28) 6200 ( +315) 329 ( +26)
Sun 12 April 2020 260 ( +29) 6491 ( +292) 350 ( +21)
Mon 13 April 2020 290 ( +30) 6758 ( +267) 366 ( +16)
Tue 14 April 2020 320 ( +30) 6999 ( +241) 377 ( +12)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 948 (+53) 24051 (+771) 10600 (+800)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 973 ( +40) 23306 ( +278) 11169 ( +636)
Sat 11 April 2020 1008 ( +35) 23538 ( +233) 11684 ( +515)
Sun 12 April 2020 1039 ( +31) 23733 ( +194) 12091 ( +407)
Mon 13 April 2020 1065 ( +26) 23894 ( +162) 12407 ( +316)
Tue 14 April 2020 1087 ( +22) 24028 ( +134) 12648 ( +241)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 2523 (+283) 24983 (+1580) 5164 (+483)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 10 April 2020 2736 ( +245) 25205 ( +841) 5279 ( +266)
Sat 11 April 2020 2971 ( +234) 25939 ( +734) 5509 ( +231)
Sun 12 April 2020 3189 ( +219) 26574 ( +635) 5706 ( +197)
Mon 13 April 2020 3389 ( +200) 27118 ( +544) 5871 ( +165)
Tue 14 April 2020 3568 ( +179) 27581 ( +463) 6008 ( +137)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.